Wednesday, December 17, 2008

The Politico on America's doomsday scenarios

The Politico offers a fascinating piece on America's Chief Risk Officer - a man tasked with determining the doomsday scenarios that could lead to a collapse of the republic:

What’s the worst that could happen?

That’s a question that James Rickards spends a lot of time pondering these days, as he sifts through the national security implications of the financial crisis facing the United States.

He's concerned with:

1) Al-Qaida and economic terrorism - their own version of shock n awe on Wall Street,

2) China cashing out, collecting on their loans and sending the dollar into a tailspin,

3) the current recession deepening into depression and 15% unemployment, and

4) the "Alternate Dollar Nightmare" in which a global coalition creates a gold-backed alternative to the dollar.

Frankly, while I don't want any of the above things to happen, I don't find any of them to be entirely implausible at this point. But read the piece for yourself. I found it fascinating, if a bit pessimistic.

Tim White

h/t to Bethany's Bo ItsHaky, former CT-3 2008 GOP candidate

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

A message from a Governor who know how to cut taxes, cut spending and balance a budget.


http://www.scgovernor.com/news/releases/12-10-2008.htm



Mike Rocci

Anonymous said...

Tim,

I am stunned by your posting such an aritcle. Your are a big Ron Paul guy and one of his economic advisors was Peter Schiff, so I assume you read him too.

The article is wrong on all 4 points. Points 1,2, and 4 simply put the blame on terrorists, Chinese and Arabs; I am suprised the writer did not throw in the bogeyman for good measure. Our economic problems are home grown.

The writer got point number 3 wrong too. It is not deflation we need to worry about, it is inflation, make that hyper inflation. I told my 7 year old about a guy who rides in a helicopter and throws money from the sky named Ben. She was more excited about him than Santa:)

Best Regards,
Mike Ulicki
Cheshire

tim white said...

Bernanke / Paulson / Bush / Obama / Dodd / Frank et al are creating huge problems by inflating the money supply and not even knowing what they're doing. (well, Helicopter Ben and Bazooka Hank know)

I view their action as mutually exclusive of these four actions. But I don't see any reason why these four things can't compound their action.

Heck it was reported in August that China was the straw that broke the camel's back and forced the Fannie / Freddie bailout. Kinda scary to me to think that China is calling the shots on American monetary policy.

I'll agree with you to the extent though that the failure to include official US Government policy as a huge problem is also intentionally misleading on the part of the US Government (not Politico, which is reporting the facts)... but what do you expect? They're benefiting... they want us to forget the old adage "money doesn't grow on trees," instead we should "just believe!"

Anyway, I see your point about dealing with the root cause.

Anonymous said...

Tim,

I should have made my point more clear. I am stunned because I see you as someone who gets it and wants to educate others. This article does not do it. The Chinese and Arab potential actions are reactions to US monetary policy.

Anyway I could go on and on.

Best Regards and have a great holiday.

Mike Ulicki
Cheshire

tim white said...

Thanks Mike.

The Chinese and Arab potential actions are reactions to US monetary policy.

I agree. Unfortunately, this stuff doesn't lend itself to sound bites and that's what Bernanke / Paulson / Geithner and their friends are banking on... most people won't take the time... including me with this particular post. I'll try to be do some better referencing / citing of materials going forward.