Risks in Iraq

With increased talk of withdrawing our troops from Iraq (see this WRA article, by George Krimsky, on ideas offered by Chris Murphy last night in Washington, CT), I've grown a bit frustrated with... what appears to me to be... the usual partisan rhetoric coming out of Washington.

By that I mean, on one side, I hear people say that America "can't referee a civil war." While on the other side, I hear people say that "we must kill the terrorists who are trying to kill us."

I tend to agree with both sides. But my main concern is the terrorists. (Btw, I've heard reports that approx. 5-6% of the people in Iraq are either terrorists or terrorist sympathizers.) So I'm trying to figure out... what has the intelligence community's assessment been (not on sectarian violence but) on terrorist activities if the US withdraws?

Googling the internet, I think the best (recent) answer I could find is from the Feb 15, 2007 Washington Post (by Walter Pincus) article discussing the Feb 2 "National Intelligence Estimate."

The estimate judged that rapid withdrawal of coalition forces from Iraq would "almost certainly" increase sectarian violence, intensify Sunni resistance, possibly cause the Iraqi Security Forces to dissolve and allow al-Qaeda to seek a sanctuary to plan attacks inside and outside the country....

On Feb. 2, the day the estimate was released, President Bush's national security adviser, Stephen J. Hadley, told reporters that the document showed that "an American withdrawal or stepping back now would be a prescription for fast failure and a chaos that would envelop not only Iraq, but also the region, and could potentially, by giving al-Qaeda a safe haven in Iraq, result in risk and threats to the United States."

So I'm wondering, since terrorists are known to plan and execute their operations on both British and US soil, what is the difference between the US and an Iraqi "sanctuary" or "safe haven?"

Tim White