Mitt is out
With Mitt Romney dropping out, I think McCain is far from becoming the nominee and Huckabee could become the GOP standard bearer. However, either of them need 1191 delegates to get the nod. And I wouldn't be too upset if neither get there... then Ron Paul would have some influence at the convention.
For a closer look at the path to the convention, see Wikipedia's chronology of upcoming primaries/caucuses.
Tim White
6 comments:
Tim,
Do the math. John McCain is effectively the GOP nominee.
In rounded numbers: McCain now has 700 delegates. Huckabee has 200 and Romney has 300. There are 1200 more to be chosen.
For Huckabee to win the nomination: (A) all of Romney’s delegates would have to vote for Huckabee, plus (B) Huckabee would have to win 60% of delegates from the remaining primaries.
(A) won’t happen even if Romney endorses Huckabee. Most states allow their delegates to vote unbounded after the first ballot, and many Romney delegates would vote for McCain. And (B) is very unlikely. The remaining primary states are mostly in the north, and Huckabee is a distinctly southern candidate. (More likely that Huckabee is really running for VP).
I predict the party will unite behind John McCain going forward, as they contemplate the real horror of Hillar-obama in the White House.
McCain will probably get the nod, but he can't take it for granted by any means.
He needs 500 delegates, but only about 200 delegates remain in the northern I-95 corridor... an area most likely favorable to McCain.
And presumably the south is favorable to Huckabee with 400 delegates.
Ignoring the timetable, that leaves McCain with a comfortable lead. But where do Idaho or Indiana go now? How about Wisconsin or Washington?
I'm just saying that I don't know. And RealClearPolitics doesn't have any easy to find polls on post-Super Tuesday states.
Ron Paul has gotten about as much comment on this blog as he has gotten delegate votes. He may have ideas that have merit but he cannot get people to back him. He will have no influence during the convention. Do us all a favor and stop posting so much Ron Paul stuff. All politics is local and we more important issues than who is going to lead the Republican party.
I like the Paul stuff. Keep it up.
Kansas, Washington (state) and Louisiana vote tomorrow.
It'll be interesting to see what happens.
Ron Paul has spent time and money in WA and LA. And he's gotten in the 15-25% range in a few states. So may have a real impact on the results in both those states.
I'm pretty sure though that he's not doing anything in Kansas.
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