Saturday, November 13, 2010

Adinolfi vs. Esty III?

I doubt it.

Keep in mind, Chris Murphy has about the worst-kept secret in Connecticut. Everyone knows he'll be running for the US Senate in 2012. That leaves the CT-5 open.

So I figure Elizabeth has a choice. Run an extremely difficult race for:

1) the US House


2) the CT House

The fifth district is virtually guaranteed to be an open seat, while Al may very well run for another term. He certainly worked hard this year and I don't see anything slowing him down anytime soon.

I realize it may seem a bit unorthodox to jump from the losing a state seat to winning a federal seat. But I figure the question isn't so much if she's a legitimate contender in a general election. The real test is if she can take the Dem primary. And I think that's entirely possible.

As with most federal offices, the issues are money and organization. And since very few people kick off their first run for Congress with a large organization, I think the bigger issue is fundraising.

Fundraising is a hurdle for any candidate. But when you have a Yale / Harvard background and your family has worked for the POTUS, you have a rolodex. And if your argument for viability is having lost an extremely close race because of an issue -- the death penalty -- that is probably near and dear to many Dem primary voters... then I think you've got a chance.

And when it comes to other social issues -- the issues that drive many primaries -- she's there with base.

On top of all that, she's been a supporter of Governor-elect Malloy since his losing bid in the 2006 Dem primary. So she's probably got a supporter there.

And when it comes to the competition, much of the CT-5 is dominated by Rs in both the House and Senate in Hartford. Sure there are some office holders. But if she wants to take the time to get started fundraising -- probably before Christmas -- I think it's entirely possible that she could raise the money and win the Dem primary... and go all the way to Washington in 2012.

So in a nutshell... if she decides to run again, I'm guessing she'll run for Congress. And there won't be another rematch of Adinolfi vs. Esty in 2012. That'd leave Al a virtual lock for reelection in 2012, if he chooses to have at it.

Tim White


Anonymous said...

"He certainly worked hard this year and I don't see anything slowing him down anytime soon."

Other than his mouth, he should be OK:

Anonymous said...

He worked hard demagoguing on the death penalty issue - really over the top!

Anonymous said...

Aren't you forgetting about Susan Bysiewicz? I think she is the leading D to challenge Lieberman at this point.

Anonymous said...

RE: Adinolfi "demagoguing on the death penalty"

Sour grapes from an anti-DP Esty supporter.

65% of Conn. voters want the DP while 75% want it in this case (Quinnipiac poll). And Cheshire support is probably even higher.

It is a legitimate political issue, Dr. Petit agrees, and the voters agree.

tim white said...

Susie B... hahaha!!! ROTFL. I'm not sure she'll even win if she runs for Mayor of Middletown next year.

I think Rosa is the only person who would stand in Chris' way to the Dem nomination.... unless there's a self-funder. But even then, Murphy's track record is well-liked by Dem activists. So I don't see any realistic scenario in which he's not the Dem nominee.

Whether he wins is a different story. A two-way would be his to take. But a three way with Lieberman makes it less obvious. If Lieberman runs as a non-major party candidate, I don't see Murphy getting 50%... though he'd probably still win with a plurality.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous November 14, 2010 7:25 PM said...
RE: Adinolfi "demagoguing on the death penalty"

"Sour grapes from an anti-DP Esty supporter. It is a legitimate political issue, Dr. Petit agrees, and the voters agree."

No, it's the ultimate low - using the aftermath of a terrible tragedy to score political points! And if he said what he reportedly did to those high school students, he should be ashamed. The lesson that these high school students learned that day is that politics is a dirty game!

Anonymous said...

To Tim's last post:

Susan made several bad choices and shot herself in the foot - numerous times. Quite a fall from early polls that had her as Governor, substantially ahead of anyone else.

Lieberman's problem is that he might not have a party in which to run. The CT for Lieberman party (Senate candidate) in the just concluded election supposedly didn't receive enough votes (1%), to retain a position on the next ballot.

The 3-way race is how we got stuck with Rowland. Tom Scott (anti-tax) became the spoiler there. Rowland was the candidate with the most votes, but approx. 2/3 of CT elctorate voted against him! And look how he went on to do us all proud.

Anonymous said...

"No, it's the ultimate low - using the aftermath of a terrible tragedy to score political points!"

Guess what, that's what politics is all about.
Al strongly believed int he death penalty while Esty strongly believed that it should be overturned. That's politics.
Politics is low at times and it can be very dirty. Al grasped what we voters wanted and ran with it. Can you blame him? Should he have prestended that the DP was not an issue?

As for the high school kids, deal with it. Did your feelings get hurt? Too bad. Welcome to the real world.
Perhaps they should think about the consequenses of supporting a candidate who would keep 2 vicious murderers from getting the ultimate penalty.
If they can't take that then don't go and hold signs out in front of polling centers.
Sounds like cry babies to me.

Anonymous said...

RE: "No, it's the ultimate low - using the aftermath of a terrible tragedy to score political points!"

The Death Penalty is a public policy issue, voted upon by elected legislators. The capital sentence given to Steven Hayes is a concrete example of how the DP statute applies (or would not apply if Esty and Nardello had their way).

Therefore it is a legitimate issue in a legislative election campaign. Your charge that Adinolfi "demagogued" the issue by addressing it is spurious.

Dr. Petit has also "politicized" the issue, and he would never claim that the right and duty to address the DP is limited to families of victims.

(However, I do think AA crossed the line with the HS students).

Anonymous said...

hey 10:05 you would be the first one whining like a spoiled cop that you are if the same thing happened to your adopted kid. oh don't like it, deal with it. that is life.

Anonymous said...

You may think you know who I am, but you are way off.

The reality of life is that when you get involved in politics, it does get nasty at times.
IMO These "kids" have heard a lot worse then what they say Al said to them. If they want to support a person who would overturn the death penalty, that is their perogative. Just like it is ours to support Al.

I have been around the high school quite a bit and go to many of the sporting events, I hear these "kids" saying a lot worse.

So lets not make it like big bad Al was picking on these kids.

Anonymous said...

Some of these high-school students say far worse and disgusting things on a daily basis. Why aren't all of the bleeding hearts demanding an apology from them? Oh right, the town is already too harsh on students. never mind.