Wednesday, January 19, 2011

No Joe = Smurf for Senate = fun in the CT-5 !!!

Joementum is retiring. Yay! From his big government domestic policy (he loves bailouts for banks) to his globalist foreign policy (there were always more countries worth bombing), Joe stood as the polar opposite of what I want in my Senator. But there’s plenty of talk about Senate hopefuls, including our own Chris Murphy. Which brings us to the previously scheduled open CT-5 seat in 2012.

Ohh… did you miss the schedule?

John Rowland (R) – ‘84 to ‘90
Gary Franks (R) – ’90 to ‘96
Jim Maloney (D) – ’96 to ‘02
Nancy Johnson (R) – ’02 to ’06
Chris Murphy (D) – ’06 to ‘12

Yup. No one holds our seat for very long. And it’s a swing district, meaning there are always viable candidates from both parties interested in a run.

But that’s history. Looking forward, who will run in our 2012 equivalent of the 2008 race for POTUS? Who will run for our open seat in this swing district? I’m guessing both sides will get a lot of interest.

For Democrats, I see:

Elizabeth Esty – Cheshire resident and a former state rep who has a liberal track record on social policies… the stuff that motivates the select group of voters known as “likely primary voters.” But if the Teachers' Union President loses the special in the 13th, might she run in a legitimate primary in the 13th district in 2012? She'd avoid almost all of the fundraising.

Mary Glassman – Multiple runs at statewide office and currently the 1st Selectwoman of Simsbury.

Mike Jarjura – He got clobbered in the statewide primary for Comptroller last year. And the very liberal, very likely-primary-voter-crowd at MyLeftNutmeg seems to be disgusted with his policy views.

Paul Vance – A spokesman for the state police from Waterbury. He considered primarying Chris Murphy for the CT-5 in 2006.

For Republicans, I see:

Mark Greenberg – He got 30% of the vote in the three-way primary against Sam Caligiuri last year.

Justin Bernier – He also got 30% of the vote in the three-way primary against Sam Caligiuri last year.

Mark Boughton – The Mayor of Danbury and the GOPs Lt. Gov. candidate in 2010.

Tim Stewart – The Mayor of New Britain. And I believe he’s running in the special election for Don Defronzo’s state Senate seat.

Ryan Bingham – The Mayor of Torrington. I believe he was first elected in 2003, the same year I was first elected. At the time, he was the youngest Mayor in America at age 23 or so. So he may still be in his 20s, single and no kids. In other words, he may have lots of free time not available to other candidates.

And of course there are lots of state Senators and state Reps on both sides of the aisle who may be interested. But these seem to me to be the most obvious people who may be waiting for Chris Murphy to make it official.

And back to the Senate’s Dem race for a second… my two cents on the first few names to drop… Although he supported Dodd – Frank, Courtney opposed TARP. That was a very important vote that he got correct. And Susie B… she’s an embarrassment. I certainly hope Malloy's party doesn't nominate her.

Tim White


Anonymous said...

A footnote to your 5th District cast of characters - CT lost their 6th District seat, pushing Nancy Johnson into the 5th.

Not that J.Paul Vance (Lieut. CT State Police) - I suspect it is his son.

Anonymous said...


Look for Chris Donovan to get the democratic nod as well as Sam Caligiuri to try again despite getting trounced in a GOP year, in a GOP leaning district.

Anonymous said...

Some of the candidates mentioned might not be in fifth district after completion of redistricting for 2012 election

tim white said...

9:14... true. And I'm not sure where the district lines were in the 1990s. But I know the 5th covered the Danbury, Wtby, Meriden stretch, but not New Britain.

tim white said...

Donovan for CT-5? May be possible. But he's corrupt. No way I would ever vote for him. And I'll constantly remind everyone how he traded an early Speakership in exchange for a $120,000 / yr no-show job with his predecessor, Crusher. But even worse, Donovan has been an entirely ineffective Speaker... who also lives in denial.

tim white said...

10:52... interesting point. But with a Dem Governor, Dem majorities in both houses and five Dem CongressCritters, I don't expect many changes with redistricting... with one possible exception.

With Murphy no longer interested... Larson, Delauro and Himes may lobby the legislature to shift some border areas. For example... Delauro may want to move Bethany and Prospect to the fifth and move south Cheshire to the 3rd. I could see some changes, such as that, happening.

Anonymous said...

Esty is done.

Tim White said...

I'm not so sure. For Washington, you need to raise money. And who among the Dems has raised money ever? I'm not sure, but I doubt any of them. And in his district, Donovan's never had to raise money. He just raises taxes.

Most Dem activists in the CT-5 are probably unfamiliar with any of the candidates. But they will pay attention to the fundraising numbers. If Esty jumps in and starts raising money (no doubt she could gauge support without declaring her candidacy), I expect activists will start paying attention to her and she will be a contender.

With her pedigree (Yale / Harvard) and other friends (the Obama Administration), I'm confident she can raise money. The question that I see as being unanswered is if she can raise it quickly... same explanation that Murph gave for his quick entry here.

But she's got another question to ponder... if she does jump into the CT-5, she's definitely narrowing her window for another attempt at either the 103rd or 13th. If Len Suzio wins the 13th special, then it's a dem primary for the 13th in 2012. And with public funding, that means she stays quiet longer... also effectively leaving the door open for the 103rd.

Frankly, I think any of the three are possibilities for her at this time. But as she acts, those doors may begin to close.

Personally, I think she could outraise anyone else in a CT-5 dem primary. And, unlike legislative seats, money is the biggest issue in running for Congress. So I see that as her strength... and where she'll end up going.

I think she's far from done. Just need to wait to see what she's planning. But with words from Joe Courtney about him losing in Nov 2002 because he didn't get into the race "until" Sept 2001, it makes me think that EE will make a decision soon.

Anonymous said...


Paul Vance of Waterbury is a former alderman and unsuccessful mayoral candidate for that city. He is an attorney.
He is the son of Lt. J. Paul Vance, the state police spokesman.
And on the GOP side, let's not forget former state Sen. Sam Caligiuri, who just gave Chris Murphy a tight race in the 5th.