RIP: The pool bubble

Most importantly, no one was injured... which brings me to the memorial service...

Via referendum in 1996, the white elephant was born. As with many government projects, it contained two critical issues:

1) the capital budget; and
2) the operating budget.

First, we had the $2.9 million capital costs. But by the time the capital costs stopped being recorded, it was already in excess of $4.0 million.* And while Council after Council have been fired by the voters every two years since 1999, in part because of the pool, the voters were never really given an honest take on whether the additional $1.1 million was legal. Instead, Council's simply skirted the rules by spending less than the $330,000** referendum limit.

Second, we had the annual operating subsidy of $400,000. With the explanatory text of the referendum suggesting both a year-round and self-sustaining facility, the pols who brought forward the pool in 1996 were lacking:

1) intellectual honesty;
2) the ability or willingness to critically analyze the proposal; or
3) the means to tell the future of energy costs.

I think the biggest problem was #3. Though I think all three issues played some role to varying extents.

And of course, Council after Council refused to address the problems of the pool directly. Instead, the M.O. was to throw more good money after bad. It wasn't until 2010 that a Council accepted the need to tackle the pool head-on.

The $7 million referendum failed, but it was the first time that a Council acted responsibly. And the PBCs work is still outstanding. I expect they'll soon return to the Council with a plan for the bubble. But I also expect the proposal could exceed $1,000,000. If so, it'll probably be sunk even before a Council vote. In other words, my feeling is that the PBC work is an exercise in futility... other than showing the voters that it's not viable... at least in this economic climate.

So my guess is that although the Council will continue to have discussions regarding a year-round pool into the 2011 fall election, the pool has finally met it's match... a combination of:

1) Father Time;
2) New England's winter snows; and
3) the voters.

Yup. Between the seven million dollar pool structure and the half million dollar track, the voters have made it clear to the Town's elected officials that there's a difference between necessities and niceties.

Looking forward to the immediate consequences of the bubble collapse, what will happen with pool programs? I'm sure some will be cancelled, but others will be relocated. One thing to keep in mind -- not for this year, but next -- is that if the pool structure passed, it was stated that it would've been possible to relocate swim programs. So programming would have continued without a great deal of interruption.

Looking farther into the future, this raises a question about the scope of an agreement between the Town and Yankee Gas. The pool would've been profitable for Yankee in the short-term. But laying pipeline extensions to Norton and Doolittle may have a 30-year payback. Combining the two would've been beneficial to the town and, perhaps, acceptable to Yankee. But the lack of the pool will certainly be taken into consideration by Yankee as the DPUC requires their projects to have timelines for their projected ROI.

And looking to our spring ritual, I expect the PBC to complete their bubble study prior to the adoption of the Town's operating budget. It'd certainly make the budget process easier having a sense of whether there could be another $400,000 subsidy for a year-round pool... or if that subsidy may be reduced for a summer-only pool. My guess is that the Council will adopt a budget with a $50,000 to $100,000 subsidy for a summer-only pool.

As for how that $300,000 savings plays out politically... I venture that if you ignore all the moving pieces of the budget, there will be a Democratic proposal to increase the education budget by the amount reduced in the pool subsidy. If that happens, most eyes will be on the annual debate of the school budget... not on the pool. That would signal the planting of flowers on the bubble's grave... with the year-round pool being unceremoniously walked into the sunset.

Or maybe the Y will lease the facility for $1 / year?

Tim White

* This does not include all capital improvements to the pool, such as the $250,000 wasted on mold remediation in September 2009.

** The threshold is now $350k, but it was raised after the pool construction was supposedly completed in 2003.